"next year's foreign trade situation may be very severe". What should we do?

the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said recently that foreign trade has maintained a rapid growth momentum recently, including the role of" one-time factors "such as the sharp increase in the export of epidemic prevention materials, and" these one-time factors will not last for a long time. The growth of foreign trade in the second half of the year is gradually slowing down, and the foreign trade situation next year may be very severe " 。 In the face of possible large fluctuations in the field of foreign trade, the central government recently proposed cross cyclical adjustment of macro policies, with the purpose of making foreign trade run smoothly within a reasonable range and preventing the damage of ups and downs to trade growth and market players

since the second half of last year, China's foreign trade has made rapid progress, the total value of import and export has been growing for 14 consecutive months, and the trade scale has reached a new high in recent 10 years, becoming one of the biggest highlights in the global economy and trade

the achievements are obvious to all, but we cannot avoid the fact that in the foreign trade industry, the life of most market players is not easy, especially those small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises are in a dilemma - on the one hand, the "soaring boxes" reappear in the port, and the reality of "one box is hard to find" and "the value of goods can't reach the freight rate" makes it miserable; On the other hand, knowing that you don't make money or even lose money, you have to take orders, lest you accidentally lose your future customers

data chart photographed by Deng Hao of China Economic Net

relevant departments have been paying close attention to the situation of the foreign trade industry. At the press conference held by the State Information Office recently, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that foreign trade has maintained a rapid growth momentum recently, including the role of" one-time factors "such as the sharp increase in the export of epidemic prevention materials, and "These one-off factors will not last for a long time. The growth of foreign trade in the second half of the year is gradually slowing down, and the foreign trade situation next year may be very severe."

realistically, it is no accident that China's foreign trade can grasp the "one-time factor". Without the concerted efforts of the whole country to effectively control the epidemic and without the support of a complete supply chain and industrial chain, the development of China's foreign trade industry may be another scene, which everyone does not want to see<in fact, enterprises are facing more"one-off pressure"from the rising cost of bulk commodities and the weakening of the exchange rate of raw materials, such as the"rising cost of raw materials". in fact, enterprises are facing more"one-time pressure of foreign trade". under the superposition of these factors, the market environment for the development of foreign trade has become extremely complex

taking the prices of bulk commodities and raw materials as an example, in the first seven months of this year, China's average import price of iron ore, crude oil and copper increased by 69.5%, 26.8% and 39.2% respectively. The rise in the price of upstream raw materials will sooner or later be transmitted to the production costs of middle and downstream manufacturing enterprises. If the RMB exchange rate appreciates, it will also push up the transaction costs of foreign trade enterprises and squeeze their already thin profit margins

data figure photographed by Ding Ting, reporter of Xinhua News Agency

based on the scientific study and judgment of the international economic and trade situation, since the second half of last year, the central government has repeatedly stressed the need to stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade. Even when the overall foreign trade situation is improving, the relevant departments have continued to make efforts to improve the level of trade facilitation and promote the development of new forms of foreign trade, so as to continuously promote the transformation and development of the foreign trade industry. however, the complexity of reality is much higher than the analysis on paper. In the face of possible large fluctuations in the field of foreign trade, the central government recently proposed cross cyclical adjustment of macro policies, which aims to make foreign trade run smoothly within a reasonable range and prevent big ups and downs from harming trade growth and market players.

it should be pointed out that the focus of cross cyclical adjustment in the field of foreign trade will continue to focus on the four aspects of steady growth, promoting innovation, ensuring smooth flow and expanding cooperation.

steady growth , focusing on stabilizing market players and market orders;

promoting innovation , is to vigorously promote the development of new foreign trade formats and models such as cross-border e-commerce, support the export of high-tech, high-quality and high value-added products, and strengthen the overseas promotion of Chinese brands;

to ensure smooth flow is to ensure the smooth flow of foreign trade industry chain and supply chain;

expanding cooperation , that is, by deepening international economic and trade cooperation, negotiating and signing more free trade agreements, upgrading existing free trade agreements and other measures, we can effectively maintain the multilateral trading system and deepen our integration into international economic cooperation.

some people say that the retreat of the external tide has made China's foreign trade" fall to the ground ". But what we want to say more is that in the face of the new international economic and trade situation and new challenges, China's foreign trade should show the strength and posture of" I stand firm in spite of the tsunami. " (author Gu Yang)

source: Economic Daily, new media, economic daily, original title" coping with the regression of "one-time factors" through cross cycle adjustment "

editor in charge: Yan Huan

proofread: Liu Lili