authoritative forecast of RMB exchange rate trend that the foreign trade industry needs to know

last week, the RMB exchange rate rose for the eighth consecutive week. In that week, the RMB hit a new high of more than 16 months, recording an increase of 1.16%

how does the subsequent exchange rate go?

it is not so much appreciation as depreciation of the US dollar.

Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, believes that the appreciation of the RMB this time has a great relationship with the depreciation of the US dollar. From the general trend, the US dollar is in a downward trend; the RMB will continue to face the pressure of appreciation for some time in the future, but in the case of relative global turbulence and pattern changes in the future, it is also it is not easy to make a trend judgment of RMB exchange rate.

Institute of International Monetary Research (IMI) of Renmin University of China Tu Yonghong, deputy director and professor of the school of finance of Renmin University, believes that due to factors such as the epidemic and the global economic downturn, the US economy experienced the largest decline since World War II in the second quarter, dragging down the sharp decline of the US dollar. The US dollar index has dropped from 98 at the beginning of this year to 92 in the near future, with a decrease of 6%, which means that the US dollar has declined by 6% against major currencies included in the US dollar index, such as the euro, sterling and yen, which is higher than the decline against the RMB judging from the current situation, it is actually the weakening of the US dollar rather than the appreciation of the RMB

Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC securities and former director of balance of payments Department of safe, said that at present, the appreciation trend of RMB exchange rate in domestic and foreign markets has not been established, but under the background of global water release, China may face a new round of capital inflows and the resulting pressure on the appreciation of the RMB . If a new round of capital inflows into China, the RMB exchange rate is likely to rise rapidly, and the space is uncertain. However, it is uncertain that the RMB has entered a rising exchange rate cycle.

the research team of open source Securities pointed out that the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the past three months is a manifestation of the" dislocation"of the post epidemic social recovery and economic development cycle of China and the United States under the background of the global epidemic. there will be no major rise or fall of the RMB in the future, and the medium and long-term fluctuations are mainly dominated by stable two-way fluctuations.

Zhang Liqing, former dean of the school of finance of the Central University of Finance and economics and chief economist of PricewaterhouseCoopers in China, believes that there seems to be great uncertainty about the change trend of the RMB exchange rate. It is difficult to say that it has entered the appreciation channel at present, but tends to think that there is a greater chance of appreciation in the future.

GAO Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, believes that the RMB has not only fallen through, but also fallen. In the future, the RMB will enter a long appreciation process, which may begin soon, and the appreciation time will be quite long. The evidence comes from two aspects. China's export share begins to rise against the trend; the US dollar exchange rate is in the trend of depreciation.

how much will it rise in the year?

Mu Tianhui, CO director of Asian macro research and chief Asia Pacific stock strategist of Goldman Sachs, said that Goldman Sachs expects the onshore RMB exchange rate to rise to 6.5 yuan against the US dollar in the next 12 months.

the macro team of China Merchants Securities pointed out in the latest report that the RMB has entered the appreciation cycle and will rise to between 6.0 and 6.5.

Zhang Jiantai, chief Asia strategist of Mizuho bank, said that considering the uncertainty of the US election, it is estimated that the RMB will take more time to break through the resistance of 6.74-6.75.

HSBC said it expects the RMB to reach 6.7 against the US dollar by the end of this year, higher than the previous forecast of 6.95.

Morgan Stanley expects the RMB to appreciate to 6.6 by the end of 2021.

UBS wealth management investment director's Office (CIO) According to the institutional view, with the sustained economic recovery of China and Asia, the RMB is expected to further appreciate to 6.8 at the end of the year and remain at about 6.7 in the first September of next year

foreign traders should carefully grasp the opportunity of foreign exchange settlement to ensure the minimum risk! After all, our main business is foreign trade, not foreign exchange speculation!

enterprises may wish to try the following methods to reduce the losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations:

sign fixed price foreign exchange settlement with banks

forward foreign exchange transactions (such as forward foreign exchange contract DF or NDF)

foreign exchange swaps (such as cross currency swap contract CCS)

foreign exchange rate hedging and foreign exchange option business

or increase the currency with small appreciation of its local currency as the currency of trade collection

at present, foreign traders may wish to take the initiative to ask the buyer whether they can pay in RMB.