the strong recovery of China's foreign trade will continue (new theory)

出海易/ 2022-05-11

the steady growth of China's foreign trade not only provides strong support for the construction of a new development pattern, but also helps to boost global market confidence

recently, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's foreign trade exports increased by 21.1% in November 2020, and in the first 11 months, The total import and export value of China's goods trade has exceeded 29 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the same period in 2019. In fact, since September 2020, China's total import and export value of goods trade has maintained positive growth for three consecutive months, successfully reversed the downward trend and performed significantly better than expected

China's foreign trade has not only increased in quantity, but also improved in quality. First, the structure of China's import and export commodities has been continuously optimized. The import and export of mechanical and electrical products maintained a rapid growth trend, and their proportion in the total import and export continued to increase. Secondly, the layout of the international market is more diversified. China has maintained the status of ASEAN's largest trading partner for 11 consecutive years. Since the first quarter of 2020, ASEAN has replaced the EU as China's largest trading partner, effectively improving China's dependence on Europe and the United States in foreign trade; The successful signing of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement will further boost the confidence of all parties in future growth. Thirdly, new forms of foreign trade are becoming increasingly active. With the in-depth development of digital technology, the proportion of import and export of new forms of foreign trade, including cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade and comprehensive foreign trade services, has increased significantly. Finally, the international market share increased steadily. China's importance as a global consumer market, supplier and capital provider has become increasingly prominent, and the dependence of the external world on China has increased. Against the backdrop of the continued downturn in Global trade in goods, the steady growth of China's foreign trade not only provides strong support for the construction of a new development pattern, but also helps boost global market confidence

the strong recovery of China's foreign trade is inseparable from the overall advantages of national development. Under the conditions of China's huge and complete system of science and technology and the continuous development of new markets, China has laid a solid foundation for the development of its unique foreign trade system

the strong recovery of China's foreign trade is also inseparable from the major strategic achievements China has made in combating the COVID-19. The resumption of work, production and business has made rapid progress, with more than one quarter ahead of other major economies in terms of economic recovery. After a comprehensive balance, some multinational corporations transferred the production capacity and orders of products related to the "housing economy" to China, which further promoted the growth of China's foreign trade

the strong recovery of China's foreign trade is inseparable from the strong support of national policies. The state has introduced a series of new measures to promote trade facilitation, improve the export tax rebate mechanism, expand the scale of export credit insurance, increase foreign trade credit, and promote the transfer of exports to domestic sales. All kinds of policies are accurate and effective, which has played a positive role for Chinese enterprises to seize the opportunity in the international market

in the post epidemic era, we need to pay attention to the impact of global industrial chain reconstruction. With the progress of vaccine development, production and distribution, there is a high probability that the production capacity of some products related to the "housing economy" will return and lead to the decline of export growth. At the same time, as the epidemic situation is gradually alleviated, the recovery of foreign production capacity will also fill the output gap, which will have a certain impact on China's export growth. Therefore, on the premise that the situation is favorable, we should also remain sober and make early planning for the reconstruction of the global industrial chain in the post epidemic era, so as to ensure the continuation of the strong recovery trend of China's foreign trade

to achieve a good start in the development of foreign trade in 2021, we should unswervingly adhere to the new development concept, continue to optimize the pattern of opening to the outside world, continue to promote the construction of a powerful trading country, steadily expand the opening of the service industry to the outside world, and strive to make foreign trade play a more important role in building a new development pattern dominated by the domestic cycle and mutually promoted by the domestic and international cycles

(the author is a researcher at the Institute of world economy and politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

<people's daily (05 edition, january 6, 2021) / P

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