continue to rise! The RMB exchange rate has soared again
looking back, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen since early June and has risen for three consecutive months. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar gradually appreciated from 7.13 to 6.65, with a rebound of nearly 5000 points</the rmb exchange rate hit a new high in the offshore market since october 21, 2018. so far, the central parity rate of rmb against the us dollar has risen for five consecutive years
enter the 6.6 era
according to the data of China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of RMB was reported at 6.7010 on October 19, up 322 points, a new high since April 18 last year. On October 20, the central parity rate of RMB continued to rise by 80 basis points to 6.6930
on October 21, the onshore RMB rose to 6.64 yuan and the offshore RMB rose to 6.62 yuan, both of which set a new high record since the current round of appreciation
on the 22nd, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6556, up 225 basis points from the previous trading day
previously, due to the fierce rise of RMB exchange rate, the central bank had to cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 from October 12, 2020. This will reduce the forward foreign exchange purchase cost of enterprises, increase the demand for foreign exchange purchase and ease the rise of RMB.
judging from the trend of RMB exchange rate in the current week, the onshore RMB fell partly when the US dollar index rebounded, which was regarded by many enterprises as an opportunity for foreign exchange settlement, while the offshore RMB exchange rate continued to rise.whether to settle foreign exchange or not is a problem
foreign traders have lost their temper after the ups and downs of this period of time.
if calculated from the beginning of the year, the RMB has appreciated by 4%. If calculated from the low point at the end of May, the RMB exchange rate rose by 3.71% in the third quarter, the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2008.not only against the US dollar, but also against other emerging currencies, for example, the RMB appreciated by 31% against the Russian ruble, 16% against the Mexican peso, 8% against the Thai baht and 7% against the Indian rupee. The appreciation against developed currencies was relatively small, such as 0.8% against the euro and 0.3% against the Japanese yen, but more than 4% against the US dollar, Canadian dollar and British pound.
after the RMB has strengthened significantly in recent months, the willingness of export enterprises to settle foreign exchange has decreased significantly. The spot foreign exchange settlement rates from June to August were 57.62%, 64.17% and 62.12% respectively, far lower than the 72.7% in May and the foreign exchange sales rate in the same period, indicating that enterprises prefer to hold more foreign exchange.
some analysts also said that the recent appreciation of the RMB has reduced the value of international commodities in the field of bulk commodities when they are priced in RMB. At the same time, domestic export enterprises have not" suffered losses "in the current round of RMB appreciation due to the increase of foreign trade orders.
strong demand for Chinese products
from a traditional point of view, generally, when the RMB appreciates, export-oriented enterprises will suffer a negative impact and import-oriented enterprises will usher in good news. Analysts say that the most direct beneficiaries are enterprises or institutions that need to pay RMB abroad, such as domestic goods and services procurement enterprises, which will benefit relatively. However, enterprises or institutions that need to charge foreign currencies, such as enterprises mainly engaged in export trade and services, And some Chinese funded institutions stationed abroad will be relatively "at a loss"
Xu Ying, senior foreign exchange analyst of Dongzheng futures, said: "The most direct impact of the appreciation of the RMB is that it benefits the import-oriented industries and is not conducive to the export-oriented enterprises. The appreciation of the RMB indicates that the purchasing power of domestic enterprises is enhanced and the import cost will be reduced. On the contrary, for other countries, the purchase of goods produced in China is more expensive and the price competitiveness of products is reduced, which will weaken the demand and is not conducive to the export of domestic goods. The logic behind it is that the relative price of import and export goods is better Potential change. "
however, this year did not happen. The senior financial business manager of a financial company said that this year, the orders and income of China's foreign trade enterprises continued to grow under the background of the continuous appreciation of the RMB, and the momentum was strong
<span class="bjh-p> this phenomenon is mainly caused by the significant contraction of overseas factories and production capacity affected by the epidemic, which makes China's products have strong demand all over the world. It should be said that China took the lead in forming a well controlled situation in the epidemic, resulting in the double rise trend of import and export."