the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the "one-time factor" will subside or make the foreign trade situation next year severe
China's minister of Commerce Wang Wentao recently introduced at the press conference of the state information office that from January to July this year, foreign trade continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, with a growth rate of 24.5%, a new high in the past decade. But Wang Wentao said it benefited from many factors, including many "one-off factors". However, these one-off factors will not last for a long time. The growth of foreign trade in the second half of the year is gradually slowing down, and the foreign trade situation next year may be very severe "
Wang Wentao expressed the hope that this recovery will be gradual and slow, and finally the growth will be within a reasonable range. "In terms of macro policies, we should strengthen cross cyclical regulation and control, so that our economic fluctuation range can be within a reasonable range, and prevent big ups and downs from harming economic growth and market players." He said
in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce will mainly focus on cross cycle regulation to keep foreign trade within a reasonable range. Specifically, there are four aspects: stabilizing growth, promoting innovation, ensuring smooth flow and expanding cooperation
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director and researcher of the Economic Research Department of China Center for international economic exchanges, told China business news that we are currently in a "short cycle of recovery". "For example, the economy was impacted by the epidemic crisis before, and there was a brief upward rebound after the impact. This rebound is a short cycle fluctuation caused by the crisis. If the epidemic ends, it will return to the normal development track." He said
" one time factor " fading
so far this year, the strong performance of China's foreign trade has benefited from many factors, including some" one-off factors ". Wang Wentao cited, for example, the backflow of orders due to the intensification of the epidemic in surrounding areas, but with the gradual slowdown of the epidemic, these backflow orders may be transferred out again.
according to the data of the General Administration of customs, both clothing exports and textile exports fell in July. Settled in RMB, textile and clothing exports reached 181.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.24% and 4.21% lower than the same period in 2019. The Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce said that the large decline in the growth rate of textile and clothing exports was largely due to the resumption of textile export orders in some Southeast and South Asian countries, and the orders originally returned to China turned again.
in addition, in the early stage of the epidemic, the export volume of epidemic prevention materials such as masks, protective clothing and respirators increased sharply, but now it has dropped significantly. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs in July, the export of epidemic prevention materials showed a slight decline month on month. In July, China's export of medical instruments and devices was US $2.02 billion, a decrease of 6% month on month
<these one-time factors are gradually disappearing."wang wentao said. at the same time, the economy recovered in the second half of last year with a high base, but this high growth recovery can not be sustained
Liu Xiangdong told the first financial reporter that, on the one hand, the base was low in the first half of 2020, but foreign trade has rebounded since the second half of last year, so the next statistics may not have an environment with a year-on-year low base. On the other hand, the global epidemic is generally slowing down. China's exports soared in the first half of this year, and there are also reasons for the sharp rebound in demand around the world, but the supply has not yet recovered
<span class="bjh-p> for example, the U.S. government directly sends money to people to stimulate consumption, but the supply of other emerging economies has not kept up, and only China has the corresponding supply capacity. Therefore, when the epidemic situation in other countries slows down and supplies are restored, this substitution effect may appear, and we are facing this pressure." He said "<spanspan span class="bjh-strong"> <span class="bjh-strong" span class=" bjh-strong " <spanspan span span class="bjh-strong">" <<spanspan class="bjh-strong"<spanspan class="bjh-strong"<spanspan class="bjh-strong"< <spanspan class="bjh-strong"</span span span class="bjh-strong"<spanspan span span span class="bjh-strong"<spanspan class="bjh-strong"< <span span span class="bjh-strong"< "" "" < " <first, focusing on cross cycle regulation, the ministry of commerce proposed four measures to stabilize foreign trade within a reasonable range, including stabilizing growth, promoting innovation, ensuring smooth flow and expanding cooperation
steady growth, mainly stabilizing the main body and orders. Wang Wentao said that at present, foreign trade enterprises are facing some common "four difficulties" in the world for example, the impact of transportation capacity and the rise of freight, the rise of bulk commodities and raw materials, the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation and the increase of labor costs. Especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is more difficult, so we should take a series of measures to stabilize market players and orders
for the problems of insufficient transport capacity and rising freight, Liu Xiangdong said that "it is difficult to find a box" is a short-term behavior caused by obstruction under the epidemic situation. "The box can't come back. The problem is not on our side, but on the other side," Liu Xiangdong said. He suggested that overseas warehouses could be established overseas in the future. "If you add more warehouses, you can reduce the frequency of shipping. For example, even if there are not so many orders, you can use a large ship to pull a warehouse and store it first. Once an order comes, you can use the goods in the warehouse to fulfill the contract." He said
Liu Xiangdong said that in the future, we can also think about whether railway and other transportation modes can more effectively solve logistics problems. He said that the rise in freight rates is a market problem. With reduced supply but strong demand, prices are bound to rise. In this case of uneconomical shipping, some products may increase costs and reduce profits
the rise in the prices of bulk commodities and raw materials has also further increased the pressure on foreign trade enterprises in terms of raw material costs. The Ministry of Commerce previously said that on the basis of consolidating and improving the policy effects of export credit insurance and credit support, it will continue to track the price trend of bulk commodities and the production and operation status of foreign trade enterprises, further optimize and improve the trade policy toolbox, and help foreign trade enterprises reduce costs and expand the market
in addition, problems such as the appreciation of RMB exchange rate also threaten foreign trade enterprises. Zhou Nianli, a professor at the China WTO Research Institute of the University of international business and economics, told the first financial reporter that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate should generally become a long-term trend. There may be some decline in the short term, but in the long run, the RMB will appreciate with the improvement of national strength. "The exchange rate also depends on many aspects, such as the balance of payments and people's trust in the currency as a reserve currency. Now China has abundant foreign exchange reserves, so the RMB is still bullish in the long run, so it is also a long-term problem for foreign trade enterprises, because it is equivalent to pushing up transaction costs." She said
the Ministry of Commerce previously said in response to questions from China business that since this year, due to multiple factors, the RMB exchange rate has increased, decreased and fluctuated in both directions. In accordance with the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, together with the people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange, will promote financial institutions to continuously optimize exchange rate hedging products and services, and actively promote the "foreign trade enterprise exchange rate hedging business manual" to provide targeted guidance for enterprise hedging
"in recent research, we found that the exchange rate fluctuation was superimposed with the rise of raw materials and poor logistics, which affected the production and operation of some foreign trade enterprises." Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said, "recently, the three departments jointly held online training on the national exchange rate hedging business, and the relevant courses have been published on the website of the Ministry of Commerce."
GAO Feng said that the Ministry of Commerce will continue to pay attention to exchange rate fluctuations and help foreign trade enterprises respond positively