Xinhua news agency, Beijing, July 13 (China Securities Journal reporter Zhao baizhinan) - since the second half of last year, exports have provided a strong driving force for China's economic growth, and its growth sustainability has attracted extensive attention in the market. Experts believe that under the challenges of high base effect and narrowing the global supply-demand gap, China's export growth will fall in the second half of the year. To stabilize foreign trade, we need to step up planning for the future, seize opportunities, step up the development of emerging markets, and plan to adjust the layout of the industrial chain
(picture description) data map, Xinhua News Agency issued
(subhead) external demand faces uncertainty
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said that since the second half of last year, if the marginal contribution to GDP is the strongest, it is external demand. During the epidemic period, China's supply chain provided the world with the most stable and rapid material supply, which greatly increased China's export volume."Many foreign trade enterprises, especially those mainly engaged in the export of epidemic materials and the 'housing economy', made more profits last year than in the past five or six years." He said
<the demand gap in the overseas market may change in the second half of this year."xu qiyuan, director of the international development research office of the institute of world economics and politics of the chinese academy of social sciences, said that in terms of overseas supply, europe and the united states and other countries will achieve vaccine popularization in the second half of the year, and the production order and supply capacity will be restored. in terms of overseas demand, the macro policy expansion of europe, america and other countries is difficult to reproduce the strength of last year. due to the recent rising inflationary pressure, the monetary policies of major economies have also fallen into a dilemma to some extent. as the epidemic situation is gradually and effectively controlled in major developed economies, macro policies will return to a relatively stable state accordingly
Xu Qiyuan believes that the demand recovery of European and American countries in the second half of the year will focus on the recovery of service industry rather than industrial products. The demand of non tradable goods such as service industry leads the recovery of overseas demand in the next stage, which has a very limited boost to China's exports
high base effect is also one of the important factors affecting export growth. Xie Yaxuan, chief Macro Analyst of China Merchants Securities, predicted that the export growth rate of traditional commodities such as textile yarn, medical instruments and devices, furniture and household appliances will fall due to the high base in the same period last year. However, machinery manufacturing and other related products may benefit from overseas inventory replenishment and maintain a high growth rate
Huang Wentao, chief macroeconomic and fixed income analyst of CSC, said that at present, the repair of overseas supply chain is slower than expected, the recovery of demand side is relatively certain, and China's high export growth is expected to maintain for more than a quarter. The compound growth rate of exports is expected to slow down significantly in the second half of the year
(subtitle) positive factors still exist
experts believe that although there are many challenges, there are still many positive factors in exports in the second half of the year
SHEN Xinfeng, chief Macro Analyst of Northeast Securities, believes that vaccine related exports will still perform well in the second half of the year. The vaccine supply rate in China is below 10% due to the general shortage of vaccines and drugs in emerging economies
SHEN Xinfeng predicts that the disturbance of poor shipping will be greatly alleviated in the third and fourth quarters. China's container production enterprises are increasing production, and with the mitigation of the epidemic, the recovery of port and seafarer labor force will improve the port capacity, so as to alleviate the problem of container accumulation in important ports
Tao Chuan, chief Macro Analyst of Soochow securities, said that considering the current strong demand in the export market, exports are expected to shake off the interference of local epidemic in July and August and usher in a slight rebound
(subtitle) improve the layout of the industrial chain
under the challenge of falling exports, experts believe that we should pay close attention to the layout of emerging markets and improve the layout of the industrial chain. At the same time, we should deal with the impact of the decline in exports by stabilizing domestic demand
Wang Han, chief economist of industrial securities, analyzed that unlike the export structure dominated by consumer goods exports to the United States, China's exports to ASEAN are more concentrated in intermediate goods and capital goods. Since this year, with the recovery of production, ASEAN's demand for intermediate products has gradually increased
in Liu Yuanchun's view, after the epidemic, countries must quickly start the redistribution of supply chains, industrial chains and innovation chains, which will directly lead to major changes in the global division of labor system and trade pattern. In the second half of the year, China's foreign trade industry should further improve the completeness of internal industrial chain and supply chain, and enhance the dynamic mechanism of overseas industrial chain and supply chain substitution
Xu Qiyuan said that China's foreign trade presents the characteristics of "large import and large export", and the production process of some exported products needs to import a large number of intermediate products from abroad. In particular, the industries such as electrical machinery, mechanical equipment and optical medical instruments are the most vulnerable in China's supply chain. For the corresponding intermediate products, we should consider formulating the industrial chain security plan at the national and industrial levels to ensure the security of the supply chain
Xu Qiyuan believes that at present, China's export share in the world has significantly exceeded the highest level in history, and it is inevitable that the export share will fall in the second half of this year or next year. In this case, we should stabilize domestic demand, provide a buffer for the decline of export growth, and avoid export fluctuations affecting the domestic economy. (end)