the growth momentum of RMB is obvious, and foreign traders need to be cautious

出海易/ 2022-05-09

in 2020, the trend of RMB exchange rate first restrained and then increased, and fluctuated and rose from June. At the end of 2020, the central parity rate of the domestic RMB exchange rate and the closing price of the inter-bank market were 6.5249 and 6.5398 respectively, both up 9.3% from the end of May and 6.9% and 6.5% respectively from the end of the previous year. In the short term, the impact of the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on foreign trade exports has aroused widespread concern

in the second half of 2020, foreign trade exports further accelerated with the appreciation of RMB. From June to November 2020, China's exports increased by 0.5%, 7.2%, 9.5%, 9.9%, 11.4% and 21.1% respectively year-on-year. Among them, it mainly benefited from China's taking the lead in getting out of the epidemic. The resumption of work and production in China has begun in an all-round way. Affected by the autumn and winter virus season and the second wave of epidemic, the resumption of production in western countries is uneven. The resumption of work and production of the domestic whole industry chain supply chain has timely made up for the gap between supply and demand in the global market and promoted the export to grow faster than expected. Although the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has increased by nearly 10% from June to December 2020, the appreciation of the multilateral exchange rate of RMB and the bilateral exchange rate of RMB in the same period mainly reflects the impact of the weakening of the US dollar and has a limited impact on China's export price competitiveness

the growth momentum of rmb is obvious, and foreign traders should be cautious

2020 has ended, but the RMB has been rising continuously. On January 5 local time, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 648 basis points to 6.476. The RMB exchange rate officially entered the era of 6.4 and appreciated to 6.4706 on June 21, 2018 The highest since. As for the recent continuous rise of RMB exchange rate, Wang Youxin, a researcher of Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that this is mainly driven by domestic economic fundamentals and market sentiment

first, we want to further expand the scope of use of RMB, optimize the flow management of cross-border RMB under investment, financing and capital, and simplify the cross-border RMB settlement process and operation convenience. The market generally believed that this move was conducive to attracting cross-border capital inflows, further exacerbated the market's bullish sentiment on the RMB and promoted the rapid rise of the RMB

Second, due to the recent signing of RCEP and China EU investment agreement, this has significantly improved China's external development environment, promoted the development of cross-border trade and investment, and further boosted the market's confidence in China's stable economic development and RMB appreciation

Third, from the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, China first stepped out of the"haze" of the epidemic, promoted its own exports and supported the market's confidence in the RMB

the growth momentum of rmb is obvious, and foreign traders should be cautious

while foreign traders are engaged in activities, the most important thing is the exchange rate, which will have a certain impact on their own profits. Compared with the current situation, many domestic economists say that the RMB will continue to perform strongly, so foreign traders should be cautious. Now, all countries are developing new coronavirus vaccine. In the second half of the year, with the increase of vaccination and the gradual control of the epidemic, the US dollar index may follow the stage of the US economy Sexual recovery

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