(CCTV finance and economics China's economic lecture hall ) at present, due to the unstable and uncertain factors of the international environment, there are still some challenges to the smooth operation of foreign trade stabilizing foreign trade is one of the "six stabilities" proposed at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 31, 2018. What are the advantages of China's foreign trade development? Where should we start to stabilize foreign trade
at 21:48 on September 19, CCTV-2 finance and economics channel "China economy lecture hall" specially invited Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China and distinguished professor of "Changjiang Scholar", to give you an in-depth interpretation of "how to stabilize China's foreign trade with new challenges and new strategies?
guest profile
Liu Yuanchun , vice president of Renmin University of China," Changjiang Scholar" Distinguished professor. In the 1980s, the wave of reform and opening up swept the country. Liu Yuanchun, who was studying in middle school, began to contact some economic knowledge, planted the seeds of learning and studying economy in his heart, and then entered the National People's Congress to study as he wished. In the past 30 years since then, he has studied planned economics at first, then political economics, and finally cultivated in open Macroeconomics for many years. He has unique opinions on many problems of China's economy and has participated in several expert symposiums on the economic situation of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council
Liu Yuanchun , vice president of Renmin University of China," Changjiang Scholar" A very important point of our strategy is to truly diversify our export, import, trade and investment patterns. We need to walk on several legs in addition, we need not only large-scale export, but also large-scale import, but also import some high-quality goods some of the problems you will discuss in previous years are the outflow of some of our domestic demand and high-end purchasing power. As soon as they go abroad, many people go abroad to outlets abroad and buy a lot of goods in some famous stores abroad. Why can't our country allow such consumption to be purchased at home? Why can't such high-quality goods be sold, produced or even replaced by localization in China? China takes the Import Expo as the main body and makes it very important. Then, on this basis, the more important point is what we have done to hedge the US tax on Chinese exports first, the export tax rebate rate will be further increased originally, we refunded 11%, so we raised it to 13%, so we deducted two percentage points for you at the same time, we are also reducing taxes and fees in China and providing special support to some industries in particular, the improvement of our business environment and the improvement of foreign trade import and export processes have greatly reduced this cost, so as to comprehensively hedge the trade protection of the United States
in the past few years, there have been pessimists, especially some international investment banks and some international macro researchers, who believe that many things will happen in China. They said that first, there must be several large science and technology enterprises in China that will fail, especially some enterprises such as Huawei and ZTE, which are the focus of the United States. Second, China's trade growth will show double-digit negative growth. Because they believe that the imposition of tariffs by the United States on China is likely to trigger a series of chain reactions, especially the outward migration of exports and industries. Many people will say, you see, Nike and Adidas in the United States, including apple, are beginning to transfer their production lines to Southeast Asia, so China's exports of these shoes and hats will be greatly reduced. Therefore, many people use analogy to say that our trade will certainly have double-digit negative growth. The third very important inference is that many of our small and medium-sized enterprises account for 5 or 60% of exports, so their anti Strike ability is very weak, so many small and medium-sized enterprises will go bankrupt. Fourth, they believe that a large number of foreign capital will move away, and there will be chaos in the financial market
then let's take a look at how our situation is after this year? Let's look at some typical facts. The first typical fact is that on July 30 this year, Huawei released its performance in the first half of the year. Huawei not only did not fail, but its performance in the first half of this year was very good. Its revenue increased by 23.2% year-on-year and its net profit margin was 8.7%. What does 8.7% mean? The net profit margin of our general enterprises may be only about 5.0%. This shows that Huawei's profits and business conditions are very good. Meanwhile, Huawei's mobile phone sales rose against the trend in the first half of this year, accounting for 40% of the whole mobile phone market. At the same time, it also signed more than 30 large orders of 5g. The prediction that some large scientific and technological enterprises in China will go bankrupt quickly has failed. The flexibility and toughness of these Chinese enterprises are better than they thought
Second, the growth rate of trade remains positive rather than negative from January to June 2019, our exports increased by 6.1% and imports by 1.4% year-on-year. Our import and export trade surplus reached more than 180 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 40% year-on-year. So you say China's foreign trade is poor or good? Of course, someone said that your export growth rate is still a little lower than that of last year. But we must see the general trend of the world. The world is in a downturn, and China can't always stand alone. But the growth rate of 6.1% is very good
Third, foreign direct investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year in the first half of this year many people say that foreign businessmen are beginning to withdraw from China, so what is the result? No evacuation. Many people wonder whether this data is wrong? With so many foreign businessmen building factories in Southeast Asia, how can there be no negative growth of foreign capital? We have done a lot of research and found several phenomena that we must pay attention to: first, some of our low-end industries have indeed moved to Southeast Asia. Secondly, Europe and the United States, especially Europe, Japan and South Korea, began to invest in China's high-tech and our service industry on a large scale. This investment is very large. Because the Chinese market is too huge, the United States these high-tech enterprises, it has no way to abandon the Chinese market. The case study shows that it is difficult to replace the huge Chinese market, the relative stability of China's technology chain and the stability of the industrial chain
Fourth, our overall employment situation was good in the first half of this year there were 3.55 million new enterprises, an average daily increase of 19000, 7.37 million new jobs, and the unemployment rate was 5.1%. This vitality is very good. So many people always want to say whether China's data is false or whitewash Taiping? I always tell my foreign counterparts that you go to China and see how many idle unemployed people are on the streets, and some homeless people are sleeping in the open air, which is basically invisible. At the same time, we will also see a series of data. This year, our top 500 surpassed the United States for the first time, which is an epoch-making landmark data. We have 129 of the world's top 500, and only 121 in the United States
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