resumption of work and production narrowed the decline of import and export in the first quarter. Experts believe that the short-term pressure toughness of foreign trade is still strong

2022-05-09
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作者:出海易

on April 17, the Bureau of statistics held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter. In terms of import and export, in the first quarter, the total import and export of goods was 6574.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. The export was 3336.3 billion yuan, down 11.4%; Imports reached 3238 billion yuan, down 0.7%. Imports and exports offset each other, with a trade surplus of 98.3 billion yuan

among them, the total import and export volume in March was 2445.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, 8.7 percentage points narrower than that from January to February. Exports reached 1292.7 billion yuan, down 3.5 percent; The import was 1153.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%, of which the import of general trade increased by 4.0%

in an interview with Securities Daily, Liu Zhe, vice president of Wanbo New Economy Research Institute, said that China's foreign trade import and export decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, which was better than the market expectation. The main reason was that the impact of the epidemic on China's exports from January to march was mainly reflected on the supply side. The delay in resumption of work led to the decline of China's short-term supply capacity, With the promotion of enterprises' resumption of work and production, the supply capacity has been significantly improved. At the same time, considering that there is a certain lag in order adjustment, after the resumption of work and production in March, some orders were compensated for production, which narrowed the month on month decline of exports in March. Overall, the impact of exports on GDP in the first quarter was limited. Considering the rapid spread of overseas epidemic in mid and late March, the lagging impact of shrinking overseas demand on China's export orders will be reflected in the second quarter. It is expected that the future export growth rate is still not optimistic

Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for international economic exchanges, told the Securities Daily that in terms of the impact of net exports on GDP, the decline in export growth in the first quarter was a drag on GDP growth, but the drag was not deep

it is worth noting that in the first quarter of this year, ASEAN replaced the EU as China's largest trading partner with an advantage of 115.41 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of China's total foreign trade

Liu zhe believes that the change of regional structure of exports in the first quarter is affected by many factors. First, the change trend of industrial chain division of labor and international cooperation. In recent years, the cooperation between China and ASEAN countries in raw materials and intermediate products has been continuously strengthened, the import and export to ASEAN countries has been steadily improved, and the regional balance of trade has been gradually strengthened; Second, the change of statistical caliber. After brexit, the trade volume between China and the EU has decreased, and the relative trade volume between ASEAN has increased; Third, the trade between China and the EU is more directly affected by consumption and demand, while the trade between China and ASEAN is more reflected in the supply side, and the impact of the epidemic lags behind the demand side

on the trend of foreign trade in the whole year, Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of customs and director of the statistical analysis department, said that the global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, causing a serious impact on the world economic development. The shrinking demand in the international market will inevitably have an impact on China's foreign trade exports, and problems such as the reduction of new foreign trade orders begin to appear gradually. The difficulties faced by China's foreign trade development can not be underestimated. But at the same time, we should also see that China's foreign trade has strong toughness and competitiveness, and the innovation ability and market development ability of Chinese enterprises are also very strong

the person in charge of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce said that in the next step, we will resist internal and external pressure, take the initiative, give full play to the advantages of full potential and strong competitiveness of the foreign trade industry, guide enterprises to innovate and develop and turn crisis into opportunity. Further pay close attention to the implementation of a series of policies issued by the State Council, earnestly help enterprises reduce the burden, carefully run the third Import Expo, help enterprises actively carry out foreign trade, ensure the market and orders, minimize the impact of the epidemic, and go all out to stabilize the base of foreign trade and foreign investment

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